When the Chiefs (10-1) host the Broncos (4-7) in Kansas City on “Sunday Night Football” (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC), they will be looking to sweep the season series in dominant fashion. The Chiefs won in Denver 43-16 on Oct. 25, scoring via pass, run, defense and special teams.
The Broncos are coming off a brutal QB-less performance against the Saints, losing at home to lose momentum from an upset over the Dolphins. The Chiefs are riding high with thrilling road wins over the Raiders and the Buccaneers.
The Chiefs have eyes on a fifth straight AFC West title. The Broncos are just looking to not get embarrassed in prime time with Drew Lock set to return at QB.
Here’s everything to know about betting on Chiefs vs. Broncos in Week 13, including updated odds, trends and our expert’s prediction for “Sunday Night Football.”
WEEK 13 NFL PICKS: Against the spread | Straight up
Betting odds for “Sunday Night Football”
The Chiefs opened as big favorites and that line quickly pushed to two touchdowns and two extra points. Patrick Mahomes is in the zone and will be eager to light up a team for an easy victory after nip-and-tuck affairs the past two games. The Broncos have surprised in some games this season, but the previous result is hard to shake.
Chiefs vs. Broncos all-time series
The Chiefs lead their long-time AFC West rivals 66-55. The teams had been close until Kansas City went on its current 10-game winning streak going back to November 2015. Before that, the Broncos had a seven-game winning streak. The shift in power has been tied to the Chiefs replacing the Broncos as the class of the division.
Three trends to know
— Despite the big number, 93 percent of spread bettors like Mahomes, Andy Reid and the Chiefs to take care of big business at home in prime time.
— Despite the high total 84 percent of bettors like the game to go over, again counting on Mahomes to relentlessly put up points.
— Both the Broncos and Chiefs have gone 5-6 against the spread. Each team has seen five of their 11 games go over.
Three things to watch
Mahomes for MVP
Mahomes has been on fire for the past month, with 14 TD passes and averaging 399.5 yards over his past four games. That has pretty much pushed him from new contender for his second NFL MVP to a near lock for the award. He’s playing like a passer possessed with 30 TDs to only 2 INTs on the season. He had his first career start against the Broncos and he has owned them since.
Lock of the week
Lock is under major heat for the issues that led to him not playing last week, called out by coach Vic Fangio. With the second-year QB rebound, or wilt further into a bad second season? The Chiefs’ blitz packages and strong secondary play won’t do any him favors to get out of his slump in a hostile road environment, even back in his home state of Missouri.
Will the Chiefs choose to run again?
The Chiefs have been perfectly fine passing like nuts with Mahomes because he’s been so good and the matchups have called for it. This week is a chance to get rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire going again for Reid, perhaps with a big lead in the second half. Don’t expect him to suddenly get 20 carries, but 15 and 3-5 catches seem right to keep him well involved playing off the downfield pass.
Stat that matters
131.3. That’s how many average rushing yards per game the Broncos give up defensively, which puts them No. 27 in the league. Over the past three games, that number has ballooned to 162.7. They were gashed badly by the Saints last week. The Chiefs shouldn’t hesitate to pound away on the ground if the Broncos go into a zone worried about big plays downfield from red-hot Tyreek HIll.
Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction
The Broncos will dig deep to play better this week with a more legitimate offense, but defense also remains a major issue for them for their injury-riddled front and shaky secondary. Mahomes will have a relaxing night at the office with plenty more help from his running game and defense.
Chiefs 34, Broncos 17
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