Cats napping or ready to reload after failed premiership defence?

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Amid the wreckage of what proved to be a season-ending loss to St Kilda, Geelong coach Chris Scott made it clear where he believes the Cats sit in terms of their overall list.

“We are not looking at it thinking we need to be terrible for a few years, then to improve. I don’t think we are at that stage,” Scott said.

Those were the days: Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron were unable to drag the Cats back to the finals this season.Credit: Getty Images

“But it is an even comp. There are only a few teams that are in the traditional rebuild at the moment. The others have been doing it for a while, therefore they are now pretty good.”

The Cats have eschewed a traditional rebuild through Scott’s 13-year tenure, even after the 2015 season when they finished 10th. Rival clubs could have justified a rebuild at that point, having had a premiership in Scott’s maiden season of 2011, then seventh, third and fifth placings. But not the Cats.

Rather, they went hunting, securing Carlton’s Lachie Henderson, Gold Coast ruckman Zac Smith, West Coast’s Scott Selwood and their greatest prize, Adelaide’s Patrick Dangerfield. Sam Menegola was added with pick 66 in the national draft. The Cats were back in the premiership frame, finishing third in 2016.

They then traded for Carlton’s Zach Tuohy, took Irishman Mark O’Connor as an international rookie, and found Brandan Parfitt, local lad Tom Stewart and Esava Ratugolea in the national draft, and Jack Henry and Zach Guthrie in the rookie drafts. The nucleus of their 2020 grand final berth, and 2022 flag, was in place.

What do they do now? This year, the Cats’ best has been more than good enough, but it hasn’t been seen enough. While Scott said a detailed review of an injury-marred campaign had yet to be done, football department boss Simon Lloyd said the Cats were determined to rebound. However, he said it was too early to specifically discuss projections for next season.

“We are absolutely supportive of Chris’ thoughts and comments. As we always do, no matter where we finish the season, we will always look at ways to improve,” he said.

Four wins and a draw since a round-13 bye, and having been in the top eight for only nine combined weeks, suggests there is work to be done.

Captain Patrick Dangerfield says a longer pre-season than typically has been the case for the Cats will refresh players, while also giving them a chance to “refine some things in our game to get our list a bit healthier than what it has been in previous years”.

Tough year: Patrick Dangerfield will want his Cats to rebound in 2024.Credit: AFL Photos

“We are realistic and pragmatic about where we have been,” Dangerfield told SEN, adding there was little point limping into September, for the true prize was “making a serious imprint in it and playing on the last day of September”.

“After the ecstasy of last season and the way it finished, and that incredible triumph, to not even be at the starting block is humbling, but you get what you deserve in this competition, and we haven’t deserved to make it.”

The Cats have several decisions to make. Ratugolea, who had wanted to join Port Adelaide in last year’s trade period, but a deal could not be reached, and Parfitt may be trade candidates, while the futures of Rhys Stanley, Mitch Duncan, Tuohy, Sam Simpson, the uncapped Flynn Kroeger and Menegola, the latter having not played at senior level this year, are unclear. Isaac Smith and Jon Ceglar have already announced their retirements, but Tom Hawkins, 35, wants to go on for another year. The Cats have only three draft picks, including pick eight, but could trade players to snare another high draft pick.

Ceglar’s retirement leaves Stanley, 32, as the only experienced ruck, prompting recruiting sources from rival clubs, without permission to speak freely on such issues, to expect the Cats to chase Brodie Grundy, who has been squeezed out of Melbourne’s best 22 in his first year there, and may look for a new club. If the Magpies, Grundy’s initial home, and the Demons continue to pay for part of his contract, the Cats will have more incentive to chase the former All-Australian.

Matthew Lloyd, the Essendon great and prominent commentator, said the Cats “need to take steps back”.

“What they have done amazingly well is to bring Dangerfield in, who is a once-in-a-generation player, Jeremy Cameron, a once-in-a-generation player, that’s allowed them to remain where they are and win the premiership last year against all odds with being the oldest list that’s ever taken to a field, but I think they have got to go back … head to the draft, even trade aggressively out to get back into the draft, otherwise it’s going to be a long, long road back,” Lloyd said on Footy Classified.

The Cats had the oldest AFL-VFL premiership team last season with an average age of 28 years and 206 days. This year they still had the oldest list despite the retirement of Joel Selwood, and had more than a dozen players aged 30 or older. The retirements over the past fortnight of Smith and Ceglar have eased that number.

Of their younger talent hoping to join an established core including Tom Atkins and Gryan Miers, the Cats like what they have. Simon Lloyd says Shannon Neale, 21, is going to be a “strong forward”, while Scott says prime midfielder Max Holmes, 20, is on the rise.

Jhye Clark, at selection No.8 last year the Cats’ highest draft pick since 2007, made his debut as a sub in round one, but hasn’t played since because of a foot stress reaction. Ruckman Toby Conway, 20, and likened to former club premiership star Brad Ottens, has also had another injury-impacted season, but is seen as an important piece of the future. Recruits Ollie Henry, Tanner Bruhn and Jack Bowes have had a year to adjust.

The Cats have become the seventh premiers since 1990 to miss the finals the following season, the Tigers (2021) and Bulldogs (2017) also having issues in recent seasons.

Geelong have dismissed suggestions of a premiership hangover, but that’s one of the vagaries of sport – who really knows if a player incrementally lost the hunger or willingness to complete all drills and sessions at the same intensity as a season earlier? Statistics show they have slipped from seventh last year to 14th for tackle differential this season (Cam Guthrie’s absence has hurt).

They have also dipped from fourth to 11th in contested possession differential, and from sixth to 15th in uncontested possession differential, but this could be largely because of personnel issues.

Scott said, “We thought we were going really well in the pre-season, then we just lost all of our defenders in one go.” Jack Henry has been restricted to 11 games because of problems with both feet. Jake Kolodjashnij, Stewart, Duncan, used more as a forward, and Sam De Koning have also been hurt.

The Cats had their first win of the season in round four, an 82-point thumping of Hawthorn. Another four straight wins followed, but there were more injuries, Stanley (fractured right eye socket) and Tyson Stengle (fractured arm) requiring surgery after they were hurt during the Gather Round clash with West Coast. Jed Bews, another first-choice defender, has been restricted to 14 games.

In his first season as skipper having replaced Selwood, Dangerfield had a mixed campaign. He was brave to see out the clash against the Power in Adelaide with a broken rib and partially collapsed lung, returning only a fortnight later. As much as he tried, Dangerfield could not will his team over the line, having done all he could in round 21 against the Power, and again against the Magpies. He will be 34 early next season.

“We had a really good run towards the end of last year when we just got everyone back and playing really well; this year we had guys, for various reasons, couldn’t play at their best,” Scott said.

That Cam Guthrie, a joint best and fairest last year with Cameron, has not played a senior game since round six because of a toe injury added to the Cats woes. They have lost the fifth-most games to injury (161) from their best 22 of all teams, per Champion Data. Mark Blicavs’ hamstring strain against the Power this month could not have come at a worse time. He had shoulder surgery this week.

Commentators raved that Cameron had become the league’s best player through the opening nine weeks when he booted 34 goals, but a double whammy when accidentally crunched by teammate Gary Rohan – concussion in the short term, and an AC joint issue in the long term (he had surgery on Thursday), derailed his campaign until he booted seven against the Magpies a fortnight ago.

Of the seven premiers to fall short of finals the next season since 1990, only Hawthorn, having missed in 2009, and Essendon, having missed in 1994, have rejigged (it’s too early to say about the Tigers) to win a flag within six years. The Cats know their task won’t be easy.

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