Four Points: De Goey the main man to take on Dees’ midfield; Voss and the Princes Park wave

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Of the five best midfielders to run onto the MCG on Thursday night, Melbourne would probably have four of them if you throw Max Gawn in as a midfielder.

Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca and Jack Viney along with Gawn would, in the eye of most independents, be considered in the best five.

Collingwood will have Jordan De Goey.

Jordan De Goey will be crucial to Collingwood’s hopes against Melbourne and in the finals.Credit: Getty Images

Nick Daicos will not be playing and as wonderful as Scott Pendlebury has been – and he is not yet a ‘has been’ – the rest are in their prime. Pendlebury is probably just outside that given Gawn is in it. (OK some would fancy Angus Brayshaw in there too, but let’s not labour the ranking thing.)

The point is on paper Melbourne have the edge and that De Goey stands out as the Collingwood midfielder upon which so much hinges. In a midfield of similar one-paced types – Tom Mitchell, Taylor Adams, Pendlebury and when rotated through there Pat Lipinski – he is the power burst player.

Jack Crisp is also an important line-breaking, run-and-carry midfielder, but De Goey is the most dynamic player they have. He is the player on whom the final, and indeed Collingwood’s finals, could turn. He is a player who, like Petracca, leaves stoppages through the front door and inflicts more damage than any other Collingwood has.

Much then falls to him in the midfield to disrupt the Demons’ game.

De Goey has shown he is a finals player. He had two excellent finals last year, against Geelong and Fremantle in a year in which his very future at the club was uncertain. The club, recall, had pulled his contract and at length it appeared he was half-way out the door.

He re-signed and for most of this year was excellent. He will probably be in the lead group on Brownlow night midway through the count, until he got suspended. He did not immediately come back from suspension as strongly, but he has found form again.

Christian Petracca will again be a key for the Demons.Credit: AFL Photos

But as good as his first two finals were last year, the third one – the one-point preliminary final loss to Sydney – was poor. He was the player of the finals heading into that game and Sydney planned for him physically and verbally. He was thrown off his game, had three touches in the first term and one in the second and finished the night with just 12 and no real impact.

He needs another final like his qualifying final against Geelong when he kicked two, had it 26 times and had eight clearances, because more falls to him in this year’s midfield in this year’s final.

Collingwood need him to have that game. It is not all on De Goey, but he shapes as crucial to Collingwood’s chances.

He was among a clutch of players who didn’t play when Collingwood lost to Melbourne on King’s Birthday. But Oliver was out that day too, and while yes, it was technically a four-point loss, the truer margin was wider than that. Melbourne did kick 8.18.

The Nick Daicos absence highlights the need for De Goey to be a creative presence in the game. But the consequence of the game also demands it to be so.

At the risk of recency bias, the Melbourne-Collingwood final is the biggest qualifying final we have seen for a long time, if not ever.

Firstly, try getting a ticket.

Secondly, while Collingwood won the minor premiership, it had the taste of a very minor premier after their unimpressive run into the finals. Their form drop, admittedly coinciding with manpower absences, left them the top side but without the emphatic nature of other minor premiers. There was no three or four gap on the next best.

It means this is a wide-open finals series without a clear favourite. Collingwood as the top team should be favourite but they carry a doubt after losses to Brisbane, Carlton and particularly Hawthorn.

Melbourne have beaten Collingwood. Finishing fourth they would have fancied Collingwood first-up over a trip to Brisbane. The stakes of victory in these games is always high when it means hosting a preliminary final, but it feels especially acute in this game, for the victor remains at the MCG. Which is also why it is the biggest qualifying final we have seen. It might be De Goey’s moment.

The Princes Park wave

Princes Park mid-season, Michael Voss was leading a team that hit its nadir. There were existential questions raised about a club that had seemed mired in its own sorry history of mediocrity.

That was not Carlton this year.

It was 2001 and Voss was captain of Brisbane. They lost that day in round eight to Carlton by 74 points. It was a horrible loss that proved the catalyst for a Lions dynasty.

Blues coach Michael Voss with his skipper Patrick Cripps.Credit: AFL Photos

The next week they lost narrowly at home to Adelaide then went on a roll that saw them not lose again for the year.

The parallel is clear, for the leader is the same. Voss is now, of course, coach of Carlton and his tenure at Princes Park this year was under threat when they struck their nadir with the loss to Essendon in round 13.

To an extent that is all this is, a neat parallel. But it also points to something more than that, at the very minimum it is a leader who understands momentum.

Carlton is the momentum side of the finals. Yes, they lost their last game but it came after nine straight wins and was in the final round of the season, a round which throws up rogue results with teams playing with competing objectives.

The question for Voss and Carlton is whether a team that has not won a final in so long lacks finals experience. Weirdly, it is a doubtful concern. Carlton have been playing elimination finals for two months.

They also played a final last year, just not in the finals. Their loss in the last game last year to Collingwood was absolutely an elimination final. Yes they lost it, but isn’t the truism that you lose a final to win one?

And as one of the blockbuster teams, they play in front of big crowds like it is just another Friday.

Carlton have finals experience without playing finals. They also have a coach who understands harnessing momentum and riding a wave into September.

St Kilda coach Ross Lyon.Credit: AFL Photos

Ross Ball

St Kilda-GWS has the makings of a classic ‘Ross Ball’ game. How do we stop GWS’ run? Yes, we want to play to our own strengths but part of doing that is not letting GWS play to theirs. This has the feel of an 11 goals beats 10 or 10 beats nine-type of Lyon grind.

Adam Kingsley recently said on radio the question will be whether the Giants can score against the Saints. He knows the Saints are not a heavy scoring team, but they are extremely hard to score against. He also knows his side’s strength is its midfield class and run, but Lyon will want to take that away from them.

Daniher key for Lions

Joe Daniher could have been the All-Australian centre half-forward this year. He had an argument for the job.

Joe Daniher smiles after a goal against St Kilda in the final round of the season.Credit: AFL Photos

That it went to Tex Walker with 76 goals is understandable and fair enough, given it was 25 more than Daniher kicked. But Daniher probably played as a more bona-fide high centre half forward than Walker and was a second ruck.

This is not to say the selectors were wrong but rather to say it would have been satisfying recognition that he was back to the form that won him those honours in 2017.

Daniher has been consistently very good this season and shapes as the player who throws this final Brisbane’s way as much as the home venue.

Daniher is probably the biggest individual threat to the Power because they are limited in key defence. Port will be hopeful their point of difference is the superior speed and run of their elite young midfield.

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