Our tipster Jones Knows thinks the impressive Joao Cancelo will find space to fire an effort on target from outside the box against Tottenham.
How did we get on last weekend?
The Jones Knows millions is dwindling.
From a significant position of strength coming into 2021 – a return of +21.5 points – we are now on a 18 points losing streak. Of course, variance is variance and losing runs go hand-in-hand with my style of bigger price punting. We must keep focused on the process.
I am resembling a broken record and those following with their hard earned must be becoming frustrated too – but a winner is near, as shown by our 28/1 Miguel Almiron angle last weekend. There is another value loser to throw on the pile.
We were on Newcastle to have 16 or more shots vs Southampton and Almiron to hit the target from outside the box (28/1 with Sky Bet) and excitement was growing when Almiron delivered from outside the box just before the break. That 28/1 was now a 4/1 shot with the Toon needing 11 shots in the second half.
Then Jeff Hendrick happened.
His red card that measured maximum stupidity on the stupid scale and completely ended Newcastle’s new-found adventurous style of play. The bet was in the bin from that moment.
- Enter Super 6
On Sunday, Jayden Bogle to have a shot and Sheffield United to avoid defeat vs Chelsea (4/1 with Sky Bet) failed to cop on both parts. Bogle’s decision not to shoot from the centre of goal about 18 yards out was a strange one midway through the first half. He remains an underrated player in the shots and goalscorer markets.
Chelsea were relatively comfortable for large parts at Bramall Lane although it’s too early to make sweeping statements about Thomas Tuchel’s style. I remain in the yet to be too impressed camp.
Anyway, we go again.
And remember, whatever I tip, I back comrades. We’re in this together.
P+L = +3.5
2pts on Joao Cancelo to have a shot on target from outside the box for Man City vs Tottenham (5/2 with Sky Bet – bet here!)
Joao Cancelo has rapidly become an integral part of Pep Guardiola’s attacking strategy at Man City – as my colleague Adam Bate wrote this week, his creativity when stepping into midfield from his full-back role has been crucial to City’s success.
His importance increases when coming up against a low-block defence such as the one he’s likely to face on Saturday. In such games, he revels in the space afforded to him just outside the box and becomes a live runner in terms of his shooting threat. In recent fixtures at Burnley and West Brom, Cancelo fired four shots at goal from outside the box, with the one hitting the target resulting in a goal. Jose Mourinho will employ similar ultra-defensive tactics which should see Cancelo move into those areas from where he likes to strike from.
- Joao Cancelo role explained by Pep Guardiola
I like the 5/2 that one of those shots from outside the box hits the target.
I’m not usually one to attack short-ish prices but 5/2 is my usual cut-off point and this really should be nearer Evens. I’m happy to go in with double-stakes as we look for a first winner of 2021.
1pt on Aaron Wan-Bissaka to have two or more shots at goal for Manchester United vs West Brom (10/1 with Sky Bet – bet here!)
My eyes have been drawn to the player shots market with the increased attacking licence given to Aaron Wan-Bissaka highlighting him as a player to back this weekend. The full-back has managed more touches in the opposition box in his last five games (10) than he produced in the previous 13 games combined. That points to an increased confidence in joining attacks, an area of his game he spoke to my colleague Jack Wilkinson about in a recent exclusive interview. He said: “This club is capable of helping me with that [attacking]. I want to become a better player every year.”
His shots data backs that up. He has managed to get a shot away in three of his last four Premier League appearances, including scoring in the 9-0 win over Southampton. Coming up against West Brom, who have faced 370 shots this season – 41 more than any other club – Wan Bissaka should be a great deal shorter than 10/1 to have two efforts on goal, especially when you analyse recent shot results from opposition right-backs/wing-backs playing against West Brom.
In their last seven fixtures across all competitions, the Baggies have allowed 15 shots on their goal from players lining up as a right-back or wing-back. Here’s the list:
- Tottenham: Serge Aurier two shots
- Sheffield United: Jayden Bogle three shots, one goal
- Fulham: Bobby Decordova-Reid three shots, one goal
- Man City: Joao Cancelo three shots, one goal
- Wolves: Nelson Semedo one shot
- West Ham: Vladimir Coufal one shot
- Blackpool: Ollie Turton two shots
It seems they have a weakness down their left and it’s being targeted by aggressive full-backs. With Wan-Bissaka likely to be given freedom to roam, I am happy to take the 10/1 for him to register two shots on goal – a bet that would have won in West Brom fixtures in five of the last seven matches. He’s also 2/1 for one shot for those wanting to take the conservative angle or 28/1 in the first goalscorer market for those with brave punting blood.
1pt on Cesar Azpilicueta to receive a card in Chelsea vs Newcastle (11/2 with Sky Bet – bet here!)
A betting angle to consider for Monday Night Football revolves around the battle between Allan Saint-Maximin and Cesar Azpilicueta.
The defender has been an ever-present for Thomas Tuchel on the right of a back three but is prone to a late challenge on a speedy opponent like a Saint-Maximin or Miguel Almiron, who also likes to drift into spaces which will be marshalled by Azpilicueta. In both his starts against Newcastle last season, the defender made five fouls in the two matches against Newcastle with all of them coming against Saint-Maximin or Almiron. He avoided a card that day but may not get as fortunate this time around.
Eberechi Eze, Ademola Lookman, Anwar El Ghazi and Heung-Min Son have all drawn bookings off the Spaniard this season and here he has to deal with the frightening prospect of keeping a lid on Saint-Maximin, who looked back to his best in Newcastle’s win over Southampton.
Since the start of last season no player to have played more than 800 minutes averages more dribbles per-game than the winger (9.14) with 14 opposition players in that time picking up a booking for fouling the flying Frenchman.
The 11/2 for an Azpilicueta card looks an angle to attack with confidence.
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