Herald Sun tipster Brad waters Goes head-to-head with Sky Racing form analyst David “Gator” Gately as they assess the quaddie races at Flemington, including the Melbourne Cup.
BRAD: This might be the year for PRINCE OF ARRAN (12) to break through and win a Melbourne Cup Gator. He has gone close the past two years and did an excellent job to be beaten less than two lengths in the Caulfield Cup. He’ll get a firm track, which he likes, and barrier one means he won’t get as far back this time. ANTHONY VAN DYCK (1) has plenty of weight but he’s also got plenty of class. If he runs out the 3200m, he’ll be awfully hard to beat. TIGER MOTH (21) is lightly-raced but has a stack of talent. STRATUM ALBION (9) looks in good shape down at Werribee and he’s done plenty of work to offset the lack of a lead-up run.
GATOR: Impossible race mate but we love the challenge! I’m with SURPRISE BABY (13) on top, best run in the race in this last year for mine and has not copped weight penalty, he draws better and more speed in the race will be a massive help. TIGER MOTH (21) looks a star, brilliant win latest at just start four, the horse that beat him previously then ran 2¼ lengths third to Stradivarius. ANTHONY VAN DYCK has beaten the might Stradivarius twice. He just has to run the trip. VERRY ELLEEGANT (7) can win and TWILIGHT PAYMENT (6) my best roughie.
Purple Sector will appreciate the dry conditions.Source:Getty Images
GATOR: Going with PURPLE SECTOR (15) who is a different horse this prep since being gelded. He will get the dry track he needs. HARBOUR VIEWS (8) comes back from Group 1/Group 2 racing and has not been disgraced. HOMESMAN (1) is the quality, he has earnt the big weight.
BRAD: I see you’ve got PURPLE SECTOR (15) high in your thinking Gator but I see three words in his form that are a worry “synthetic – hoof – filler”. It goes back on despite his last start win and the Flemington circuit is going to be fairly firm with the forecast sunny conditions. This isn’t a race I’d be keen to play too heavily in but going with the classy HOMESMAN (1) to be too strong, even with 62kg after his win in the Crystal Mile. ODEON (13) shows up on firm decks in this type of race and might be the each-way play.
BRAD: We don’t agree in race eight but I couldn’t agree more with you on CORDILLA (15) in this race. She has raced in great heart this time in and was impressive with the big weight at Cranbourne. She’s rising in class but will measure up with the 6kg weight drop. Thought MUSIC BAY (5) was terrific at Geelong first-up and she was an impressive winner at her last Flemington run. She’s drawn awkwardly but William Pike can work it out for her backers.
GATOR: Good call with CORDILLA Brad, I am convinced she measures up here, should have beaten Challoit two-back and she just ran enormous in a Group 1 Myer on Derby Day. LYRE (3) needs a win but has been luckless of late in fairness, she has Probabeel form at 1400m. WILD VIXEN (2) next best.
GATOR: YAO DASH (15) resumes and has trialled well in Sydney, the last time he was on a dry track he was not beaten far in a Group 1 Golden Rose to Bivouac. EXHILARATES (6) is value danger for mine, forget that fresh run at Caulfield. WILLIAM THOMAS (2) is drawn to swoop. ALGADON MISS (12) my best blowout hope.
BRAD: Tricky race to finish. I was plotting a last-race scoop on Lord Von Costa but he’s scratched so reverting to Plan B. The race might suit WILLIAM THOMAS (2) after excellent efforts at his three runs this time in. He bumped into the smart Coruscate at Caulfield then did a solid job in a leader-dominated race at The Valley. His two straight runs have been OK and he’s likely to find the right part of the track near the outside this time. The topweight REDOUBLE (1) went well in The Kosciuszko in Sydney last time out and YAO DASH (15) should be respected.
1st leg: 1,5,6,7,12,13,15,16,21
2nd leg: 1,6,8,12,15
3rd leg: 3,15
4th leg: 2,6,12,15,17
1st leg: 1,9,12,21
2nd leg: 1,13
3rd leg: 5,15
4th leg: 1,2,15
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Originally published asBrad v Gator: Get the Cup and quaddie in sight
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