Early Oil: Tips, analysis and best bets for Caulfield Saturday

Herald-Sun form analyst Brad Waters runs the rule over Saturday’s Bletchingly Stakes meeting at Caulfield.


TOKEN SPIRIT (Race 6, No. 1)

Smart stayer that was too strong over 2500m at Flemington last time out and looks set to complete a hat trick of wins at Caulfield.


PAMMY JOY (Race 3, No. 9)

Raced wide but impressed with a dominant win at Echuca at her second go. She’ll handle 1400m without a worry and she loves wet tracks.


1, 2, 3/1, 5, 6, 9, 10/1, 2, 4, 6/1, 4, 8, 14, 17

$100 flexi for 33 per cent


1, 6/4, 8, 14, 17/1, 3/1, 2, 5, 11/3, 5, 7, 9/1, 5, 6, 14

$100 flexi for 9.76 per cent


Race 6: 1, 3

Race 7: 1, 2, 5, 11

Race 8: 3, 5, 7, 9

Race 9: 1, 5, 6, 14

$100 flexi for 78.1 per cent

Trainer Wendy Kelly and jockey Michael Poy will combine again with Cakewalk Baby in the opening race of Saturday’s Caulfield meeting. Picture: Getty Images.Source:Getty Images


The stayers start the day over 2412m with the rail out four metres at Caulfield. The three-year-old CAKEWALK BABY (8) is worth a small bet in the opening race. She has improved with racing and distance this time in and did a great job at Flemington last time out. The old stager MAHAMEDEIS (1) will be the hardest to beat until the set weights and penalties format. MASERARTIE BAY (3) was only fair in Sydney last time but is unbeaten over 2400m. ROYAL CROWN (2) faded over 2800m last Saturday but is a winner over this trip.

SUGGESTED BET: Small bet on Cakewalk Baby to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Mahamedeis $8.50 – $5.


GREAT AGAIN (1) found himself in an unsuitable race but battled on steadily over 1000m at Sandown but will be much better suited over 1400m, at which he has a solid record in WA. THE INEVITABLE (3) was outsprinted over 1100m at Caulfield first-up but 1400m will suit him fresh. WHY CHOOSE HER (8) did her best work late under 60kg in the Leilani Final at Flemington but drops 8kg here after Matthew Cartwright’s claim. DARK DREAM (1) is a Queensland Derby returning to Australia after losing form in Hong Kong but his recent trial was promising.

SUGGESTED BET: Great Again to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Great Again $3.90 – $3.30.

Pammy Joy has a great chance to make it back-to-back wins at Caulfield after her last-start win at Echuca. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images.Source:Getty Images


This is a tricky race for two-year-olds over 1400m with many unproved over the trip. PAMMY JOY (9) did it tough three-wide without cover at Echuca but was far too strong in the wet and she’s over the odds in early betting here. POUNDING (6) ran on well behind a smart winner when resuming at Sale and the 1400m suits. CHERRYPICK (10) wasn’t far away on debut and should get every chance again. REGULUS (5) finished off well on debut at Flemington.

SUGGESTED BET: Pammy Joy each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Sunfall $3.60 – $3.40


LA MEXICANA (1) should be a favourite of punters with her impressive winning strike of six wins from nine starts. She has 60kg but also has the class to score first-up on her way back to Group races. PROPELLE (4) wasn’t disgraced in the Sir John Monash Stakes last time out and drops in class here. MISS ALBANIA (6) should plenty of ability last time in and there wasn’t much between her and La Mexicana at their last meeting. ABSOLUTE FLIRT (2) was a strong first-up winner.

SUGGESTED BET: La Mexicana to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Kalkarni Royale ($9.50 – $5.50)


This is the hardest race of the day for punters but SCANTON (8) should get every possible chance from barrier two on Saturday. He had to work early from a wide gate last start but should get a soft run back on his favoured wet ground. SESSIONS ROAD (17) is an up-and-comer that should measure up to this level. AND BEYOND (4) is unbeaten and should be respected back on the turf. JITTERY JACK (14) led and tried hard in a harder race last time and could prove tricky to catch late.

SUGGESTED BET: Scantoon to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Sessions Road $13 – $9


Happy to back TOKEN SPIRIT (1) again after his two impressive wins over staying trips at Sandown and Flemington. He was well-backed and got the job done at Flemington and can do so in a similar assignment on Saturday. CAPRICORN RIDGE (4) bolted in on heavy ground at Ballarat and should see out the 2412m this time. MURRUMBIDGEE RIVER (3) got too far back at Sandown but only just missed. He’s promising and should handle the extra trip. ZA’EX was sound behind Red Santa second-up and will be fitter again.

SUGGESTED BET: Token Spirit to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Capricorn Ridge $8.50 – $4.80

Godolphin sprinter Isaurian will be hard to hold out in the Group 3 Bletchingly Stakes at Caulfield. Picture: AAP.Source:AAP


THE BIG EASY (2) made the most of a switch to Sydney to record a deserved breakthrough win in heavy ground last time. He can go on with it now with the added confidence a win brings. IMPERIAL HILTON (1) won well in Adelaide two runs back but wasn’t quite as strong over 1440m last start. Dropping back to 1200m should suit him. DUKE OF NEWORLEANS (5) came from a long way back to score at Sale and will be fitter for two runs back. THE GARDEN (11) was an easy maiden winner at Geelong and looks to have plenty of upside.

SUGGESTED BET: The Big Easy to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: The Garden $9.50 – $7.


Going with ISAURIAN (7) but without a lot of confidence in the Bletchingly Stakes. His first-up effort was solid when giving away weight to the winner at Flemington and Jamie Kah takes over. THE ASTROLOGIST (9) has returned to Melbourne in terrific fashion with two wins down the straight and he’ll be hard to hold out. RED CAN MAN (5) was a strong on-pace winner of the Monash Stakes but his chances depend on how wet the track is. ORDER OF COMMAND (3) just found the Caulfield track too hard in the Monash but softer conditions will suit him. VIRIDINE (2) and STREETS OF AVALON (1) are chances in a tricky race.

SUGGESTED BET: Small bet Isaurian to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Viridine $6.50 – $5.


A big field of three-year-old fillies will tackle the last Caulfield race of the season with several chances engaged. ELIDI (14) could show up at odds. She was an easy maiden winner first-up last time in before she was competitive throughout the rest of her campaign. Her recent jumpout was excellent. MISS DIVINE EM (5) led and battled on OK over 1400m last time but will be better suited back at 1200m. ZOU DANCER (1) is the class filly of the race and must be respected despite her wide gate. ZESTY BELLE (6) ran on but just missed first-up but is worth another chance.

SUGGESTED BET: Elidi each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Zesty Belle $4.60 – $3.70

QUINNY’S MAIL BAG: Miss Albania ready for return

BEST BET: Miss Albania (Caulfield Saturday, Race 4, No. 6)

VALUE BET: Viridine (Caulfield Saturday, Race 8, No. 2)

LAY OF THE WEEK: Great Again (Caulfield Saturday, Race 2, No. 1)

Caulfield Race 1

A 2412 metre race to start the day with Masserartie Bay heading the early market at $3.30.

Three of his four career wins have come over distances between 2100-2400 metres and it is easy to see why he is prominent in the market.

Second elect Reflect The Stars has eased from $3.70 out to $4.40 and will be partnered by Craig Williams.

The runner I am keen on is Mahamedeis who has been backed from $8.50 into $5 including one bet of $600 at $8.

With the blinkers on and stepping up in trip he should get a lovely run from gate two and holds each-way appeal.

Suggested bet: Mahamedeis each-way.

Caulfield Race 8

An incredibly open and even edition of the Group 3 Bletchingly Stakes at Caulfield.

Weather watch will come into play with favourite Red Can Man, the former Perth galloper comes into this having won the Sir John Monash Stakes last start.

All eight of his career victories have come on a good track and he has finished out of the placings in both runs on soft ground.

If track conditions suit, he shapes as a leading chance.

Isaurian is on the second line of betting at $5.50, the James Cummings galloper is also an acceptor in Sydney.
The runner who holds appeal is Viridine.

Viridine won this race last year defeating Streets Of Avalon before going onto win the Regal Roller Stakes.

Viridine opened $6.50 and has been backed into $5 with one bet of $600 at $6.50.

He was very well backed first-up when unplaced behind Red Can man and is a two-time winner second-up.

Streets Of Avalon trialled nicely recently and should be included in the multiples while The Astrologist is shooting for a third straight win and is one of many runners with claims.

Suggested Bet: Viridine each-way.


Race 4

ISAURIAN heads the market at $2.70 and comes into this race second up from a spell having chased home The Astrologist at Flemington when fifth on July 3.

Isaurian has a strong second up record despite having never won with three runner-up finishes from four attempts.

It is worth noting that connections have also accepted in Bletchingly Stakes at Caulfield with Isaurian where he is a $5.50 second elect.

The runner I am keen on is the $3.40 second elect All Time Legend.

All Time Legend is first-up on Saturday and was enormous in defeat when we last saw him at Randwick in February.

He had to work to find the lead and was pestered after that by bolter Sikandarabad.

Sikandarabad faded badly and All Time Legend had the audacity to nearly kick back and win when headed.

All Time Legend has twice won first up and with Kerrin McEvoy in the saddle looks well placed to add to that record.

The $3.40 on offer holds appeal and I Am Legend will start favourite and is the runner to beat.

At longer odds there has been early money for stablemate to the favourite Gaulois who has been $16 into $15.

Suggested Bet: All Time Legend the win.

Originally published asEarly Oil: Token to continue winning Spirit

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