Graham Carey’s Eagle Farm preview, tips and best bets for Wednesday, July 21

The midweek meeting at Eagle Farm on Wednesday is a day of short-priced favourites so I will be looking for value, writes Racenet’s Queensland form student Graeme Carey.

Here is Carey’s race-by-race preview of the meeting.

Race 1 – F&M Maiden Plate (1200m)
The Barry Lockwood-trained KOLLUR (6) drifted in the market and got a fair way back when running on for fourth behind stablemate Scissorhands when resuming over 1200m here. She will be improved and while her best efforts last preparation were over longer, she won’t find a race much easier than this. BRILLIANTLY (2) has shown enough at trials to suggest ability. From a good gate with Jim Byrne she will get all the favours and this is a moderate field. Barry Baldwin has been having some success lately and NEARBY (8) has shown speed at both outings. She gets a gear change and with Brad Stewart back in the saddle she should be prominent. SERENE AFFAIR (4) was never involved last start at Ipswich over 1100m after being crowded early but she was runner-up at her two previous outings at Sunshine Coast and Ipswich over shorter trips. A senior rider in Jim Orman may help her improve.
Betting Strategy – KOLLUR (6) gets her chance but likely to be no value.

Race 2 – Class 4 Handicap (1300m)
The David Vandyke stable has been battling of late but the strike rate with Ryan Maloney is impressive and MCCOVEY COVE (5) will relish the drop back to a small midweek field. He is yet to win this preparation, and this is his first outing at Eagle Farm but has been close up in stronger fields than this, the latest when beaten less than three lengths in a Saturday Class 3 behind Nordicus. He has talent and can overcome the rise in weight and distance. MONTEZ (7) was far too good when resuming at Beaudesert in a Class 4 Plate over this trip. Jaden Lloyd stays on and MONTEZ was racing well in Saturday company last preparation. Maryann Brosnan’s small team is in good form at present and MONTEZ can go on with it. REBEL ROCK (2) regularly teases by putting in big runs from the back of the field but rarely delivers winning only three of 24 starts. Fitter for two outings, his best form is over longer but the big track suits and if he gets a strong tempo with 2kg claimer Adin Thompson will be hard to hold out. SCATHING (1) has had his share of issues but is now third-up from a break and if Chris Munce has him right is well and truly up to this class with the 3kg claim for Kyle Wilson-Taylor having him well placed with 57.5kg. As a younger horse he could mix it with the likes of Hightail and Exhilarates and a repeat of that form would have him winning but recent episodes of atrial fibrillation urge caution.
Betting Strategy – The value may be MONTEZ (7) but I am staying out.

Race 3 – F&M Benchmark 65 Handicap (1200m)
Natalie McCall places her horses well and DEJANOVA (2) will find this easier than Saturday class against the likes of Redoute’s Image. Fitter for two outings, all three wins have been at this trip, the 3kg claim for the in-form Kate Cowan helps, the tongue-tie goes on and she has the speed to take advantage of gate one. That ticks plenty of boxes and DEJANOVA can run the 1200m out better than most of these. Formerly with David Hayes and Tom Dabernig, JEEHAAN (7) is now with Rob Heathcote and has benefited from two recent trials. At her most recent outing she led throughout to win a maiden at Wangaratta over 1170m and with Ryan Maloney to ride from gate four should be near the speed for a long way. PRINCESS TENKO (6) is a speedy filly but yet to win beyond 1100m. At her last start here over 1200m she was run down by Kudu in 3YO Benchmark 65 class and this isn’t much stronger. With Jim Orman to ride PRINCESS TENKO will give a strong sight and just has to run out the 1200m. PRINCESS KAYO (1) followed three consecutive placings with a win at Toowoomba last start in a fillies and mares’ Class 3 Handicap and Tony and Maddy Sears have brought her to town. The claim for Kyle Wilson-Taylor helps and the bigger track may suit the Tavistock mare that will be running on late. Barry Lockwood has taken over the training of WICKED WENCH (5) which wasn’t far away at her last outing in a fillies and mares’ Class 2 during the Grafton carnival. Now third-up from a break she can improve for Jake Bayliss.
Betting Strategy – Two units to win on DEJANOVA (2).

Race 4 – C,G&E Benchmark 65 Handicap (1200m)
Melissa Taylor has found a useful one in KUDU (5) which has won two of his three outings this time in, the most recent a convincing effort in this class against three-year-olds over this trip. Adin Thompson stays on and if KUDU produces a similar effort he will be hard to beat. The most interesting runner is LEVI’S STORM (6) which has won his past two outings at Tamworth over 1200m by big spaces and resumes on the back of two trials. He is awkwardly drawn but has gate speed and the 3kg claim for Kyle Wilson-Taylor has him well-placed. He needs to handle Eagle Farm but may be the one with most upside. GLOCK (1) was with the leaders throughout and only collared late in a no metro win Handicap at Doomben last start. He rises 5kg but will find this easier and if he can run a strong 1200m on the Eagle Farm surface will be in the finish. EL COYOTE (4) is now on his fifth trainer in 13 starts. He won a recent trial for Chris Meagher, gets some gear changes and as a two-time winner in NSW can show up in this company.
Betting Strategy – Three units to win on KUDU (5).

Race 5- QTIS 3YO Benchmark 70 Handicap (1400m)
By far the strongest race of the day with some useful three-year-olds engaged. KINGSTON’S HERE (3) tried hard and was only narrowly beaten by Starosa and Fleet Dove in a strong Saturday 3YO Handicap over 1350m at Doomben last start. He drops back to midweek company at Eagle Farm where he placed behind Garoppolo two starts back after giving too much start. Baylee Nothdurft takes the mount, few ride Eagle Farm better and with blinkers on KINGSTON’S HERE should be too good. GDANSK (1) has only just missed at his past two outings at the Gold Coast the most recent over this trip behind the talented Rogue Rocker where he lost the race on protest. Ryan Maloney has an excellent strike rate with the Edmonds stable and with a good run off the speed GDANSK will be hard to hold out. The stablemate JETTY (2) showed improvement second-up when fifth behind Embers last start and has placed at three of four outings here. He will get a good run just off the speed with Andrew Mallyon and can finish off. MOB BUSTER (4) ran a huge race at long odds when third to Ayrton and Ellsberg in the Group 3 Gunsynd Classic over 1600m here last start. He drops back in trip but has been freshened by a five-week break and can run the trip out better than most of these. His form since resuming has been exemplary and with Jim Orman staying on can continue the good work. REAL EMPRESS (9) has only won one of nine starts but made good ground when fourth behind Starosa last start over 1350m at Doomben in Saturday open three-year-old class finishing on the heels of KINGSTON’S HERE. She meets him 4kg better, winkers go on and is better suited on this bigger track over longer.
Betting Strategy – KINGSTON’S HERE (3) the one to beat but not taking red figures

Race 6- Class 1 Handicap (1400m)
Richard and Michael Freedman have had a good time over the winter in Brisbane placing horses to advantage in minor races and CABARITA (5) can add to the tally. She is resuming after being narrowly beaten when third at Kembla Grange in a Class 1 over 1400m and has benefited from a recent trial. A well-bred filly by Redoute’s Choice she, has upside and can improve on her record of one win and three placings from seven starts. With Taylor Marshall riding she will get a good run off the speed and be hard to hold out. GOLDSCHLAGER (7) has been finding it hard to win this preparation and drops back to Class 1 after a solid fourth at Ipswich last start in a Class 2 over 1350m. Brad Stewart takes the ride and GOLDSCHLAGER will get every chance from gate three. LORNA DOONE (8) fought on behind a useful pair in So Clever and Super Gorgeous last start here over 1200m. Her only win came at this trip and Jim Orman can take advantage of gate one. Cody Morgan has brought KANALAIDE (4) up from Tamworth after he broke through for an easy win over this trip at Scone in a Showcase maiden on a heavy track. The firm surface at Eagle Farm is a challenge but the big track will suit and he runs on. I AM A BEAUTY (2) broke through at Grafton with a big win for Maryann Brosnan and 3kg claimer Jayden Lloyd. He is up in class and distance but the good gate helps and I AM A BEAUTY will be prominent for a long way.
Betting Strategy – Two units to win on CABARITA (5).

BEST BET:
KUDU (Race 4 No 5)

NEXT BEST:
CABARITA (Race 6 No 5)

VALUE BET:
DEJANOVA (Race 3 No 2)

Quaddie numbers are:
Race 3: 2, 6, 7
Race 4: 5, 6
Race 5: 1, 3, 4
Race 6: 5, 7
36 combinations

Originally published asEagle Farm preview, tips and best bets

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