Race-by-race preview and tips for Thursday meeting at Kembla Grange

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Selections based on a good track. Monitor for bias/pattern.

Race 1 – 1:40pm: PFD FOOD SERVICES RISING STAR SERIES BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP (1000m)

4. Hellova Nature went out on a career peak figure before spelling last prep and ran very fast time relative to the day. Further, repeating that effort will make him hard to beat, and he’s had two trials leading into this assignment. The lightly raced galloper receives the tongue tie for the first time and expect him to be in the finish.

Kembla Grange will host Thursday’s meeting.

Dangers: 7. Spirit Of Storm was well-backed first-up to score at Newcastle and has come back improved. She can step off that performance and maps well. 1. Temple Run is another last-start winner drawn well and add 6. Sinner to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Hellova Nature WIN

Race 2 – 2:15pm: CANADIAN CLUB PROVINCIAL CLASS 1 HANDICAP (1600m)

6. Brave Agenda had nearly every chance last start at Canterbury in a stronger grade and battled on to finish fourth. Before that, her two starts on the provincial circuit were solid, and bouncing back to that form will put her in the finish. The filly returns to her home track, has multiple winning figures, and Tommy Berry rides.

Dangers: 1. Jamrock has a much more positive race setup here. The gelding will appreciate the rise in trip, drier ground suits and Grant Buckley rides from a soft draw. 5. Red Cobra is racing well this prep and market watch on 2. Guzumped, who returns. 4. Fioprospero is still lightly raced and has come back improved with a strong first-up win. He can settle closer with the rise in trip suiting and can make it back-to-back wins.

How to play it: Brave Agenda WIN

Race 3 – 2:50pm: PERONI MIDWAY MAIDEN HANDICAP (1200m)

Debutant 1. Katsumoto is a nice type and won a recent trial at Randwick over 1045m with style. The gelding was slightly keen throughout but responded well when Tommy Berry clicked him up in the straight and accelerated away from his rivals, going through the line full of energy. He has a positive race setup here and expect him to be hard to hold out.

Dangers: 11. Thaibeefsalade was a savage drifter in the betting four days ago and didn’t appreciate the rain-affected ground. She can bounce back on drier ground and has the all-important race experience. 4. Equilibrist debuts at his home track and looks like an improving type. Market watch on 2. Lucky Force who was ridden out to finish third in a recent heat at Rosehill.

How to play it: Katsumoto WIN

Race 4 – 3:30pm: CARLTON DRAUGHT 4YO & UP MAIDEN PLATE (1400m)

6. Cohesive’s debut run had hidden sectional merit in a high-rating race at Newcastle 18 days ago, and she ran on well. The mare was restrained early and got too far back but made up significant ground in the straight, and all key indicators suggest the rise in trip will be ideal. Expect her to improve with race experience, and she represents value. Each-way.

Dangers: 8. Margarets Missile resumes for her new trainer, Kerry Parker, and has trialled well enough in preparation for this assignment. She raced well last campaign and always gave the impression she would return improved. 5. Prefer The Wink has a strong ratings profile relative to his rivals and expect him to be hard to hold out. 3. Binghamton brings a fitness edge and a solid SP profile for this event.

How to play it: Cohesive E/W

Race 5 – 4:10pm: ELITE SAND & SOIL SUPER 3YO MAIDEN PLATE (1400m)

9. Equipage profiles well for this event with a much more positive race setup and is ready to peak third-up. The Godolphin galloper had too much to do last start at Newcastle after being restrained from a wide draw and got too far back. Further, she had to make a long-sustained sprint, making up significant ground, clocked some of the meeting’s fastest closing splits and ran on into third in what was a high-rating race relative to the day. Her ratings/sectional profile suggests he can improve again up in distance and can settle much closer from the softer draw. In addition, Tommy Berry rides for the first time and expect him to be hard to hold out.

Dangers: 6. Tellez comes through the same race as Equipage and brings the SP edge over that galloper. He was honest in that event, being first-up and loomed to win, but he peaked late. Expect him to improve off that effort, and the rise in trip is ideal. 1. Aix En Provence is coming through a strong time race and is another runner set to peak third-up. Market watch on 10. Mare Of Mt Buller who resumes and has trialled well going through the line not extended.

How to play it: Equipage WIN

Race 6 – 4:50pm: LORD KERRY MCKENZIE BYGONE BEAUTYS BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP (1400m)

5. Dear Jewel had excuses first-up at Canterbury 20 days ago in a high-rating race and will have only improved off that effort. Further, the mare had to exert too much energy in the mid-sections and then had her momentum halted over the concluding stages when checked/blocked. The four-year-old will appreciate the switch back to dry ground, where she produces all her peak figures and maps to have all favours from the inside draw with Tommy Berry riding.

Dangers: 3. Vomo Island resumed as a gelding first-up at Wyong 15 days ago and broke through for his maiden win, running solid time. He can step off that performance with the bigger track suiting and more ground, which is ideal. 1. Black Duke had all favours last start but tried hard in defeat. 11. Your Not Boss is a last-start winner at Canberra, albeit on the rain-affected ground, but ran solid closing splits relative to the day.

How to play it: Dear Jewel WIN

Race 7 – 5:30pm: EVERGREEN TURF AUSTRALIA CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2000m)

Forgiving of 6. Suit Of Armour’s first-up effort at Gosford, where the gelding was a savage drifter late in the trade and struck testing ground. Further, he wasn’t suited to the race shape, had to make a long-wide sustained run, and clocked hidden closing splits. He can bounce back here back to dry ground and will strip fitter. Can rate to win.

Dangers: 2. Genetic Freak is ticking over okay this campaign and finds a winnable race here. He is rock-hard fit and has multiple winning figures. 11. Laskarina and 3. Sherman come through the same race, which was run at a fast pace. Both gallopers have strong platforms for this and are suited to this distance range. 12. Slipstreaming is racing well and will be running on hard.

How to play it: Suit Of Armour WIN.

Best Bets
Race 5, No.9 – Equipage
Race 6, No.5 – Dear Jewel

Best Value
Race 4, No.6 – Cohesive

Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au

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