A simple trick to boost your decision making | Thinking in Bets | Book summary (hindi)

2 weeks before the exam Sir,, there's hardly any time left for the Maths exam and I. have no idea now. kya kya prepare karun. (what should I prepare), main hope kar tha tha ki ye naubat na aaye (I was hoping it wouldn't come to this) but now there is a way for you. The rest has remained the same (but there is only one way now) Solve the question papers from the past 10 years (Solve the question papers from the past 10 years) In the same way we have repeated questions every year., (Usually, all the questions are repeated from them) What is true sir?, Day of the exam Yaar! Sir did not give me that poor thing! (Sir completely screwed me!) Said that the questions would come from previous papers. (He said that the questions would come from previous papers) Even after completing the last 10 years' papers, (Even after completing). the last 10 years' papers from top to bottom) Saala not a single question came from us!, (Not a single question came out of it!) Our tendency to equate the quality of a decision, (with the quality of its outcome) with the quality of its outcome is called Resulting!, (is called Resulting!) What do you think?, (What do you think?) Was Krishen's teacher's decision really wrong? (Was Krishen's teacher's decision really wrong?) Come, see. (Come on, let's see) Yaar! I should have known that solving the past papers was not going to matter. (that solving the past papers wasn't going to matter!) Jitna bhi maay baaki tha (With whatever time I had left) usmein jitna ho sake utna (I should have tried to complete) syllabus cover karna hi sahi rehta mere liye, (the syllabus as much as possible) Arey Idhar aa, idhar aa bro, (Bro! Come here!) Meko bataya sir ne, (I got to know from sir) that in your exam this time from past papers. (that this time in your exam) not a single question came from the past papers) Kitne unlucky ho yaar tumlog, (How unfortunate!) Last time I followed the same advice given by my sir in the exam (Last time I followed the same advice) in the exam, brother!. (and killed it during my exams). . . outcome achieved) this is called Hindsight Bias. First of all we should understand. (for not realizing earlier) that what happened was bound to happen (that this was bound to happen) Was Krishna's fate bad? Yes. (Was Krishen unlucky? Yes) But this does not mean. (But that does not mean) that the decision of Krishen's teacher was also bad., (that his teachers' advice was bad as well) Iss case mein, aap dekh hain ki, exam ki nazdiki, (In this case, considering how close the exams were) Krishen's lack of preparation and, (Krishen's lack of preparation and) previous How many years have you kept in mind. the pattern of previous exams? Krishen's teacher's suggestion was very good., (Krishen's teacher's suggestion was actually quite good). The deep connection that we have created in our mind (between outcomes and decisions) from us Resulting and Hindsight bias. I am in paid hotel.. (cause Resulting and Hindsight Bias) Before we discuss on how to overcome it,. let's try to understand (let's first try to understand why our mind) that our mind is like this. Why even beg?. (Even lays such traps in the first place?) First, our brains have evolved to maintain certainty and order. (Our brains have evolved to create), We want every thing to be perfectly predictable, (We want everything to be perfectly predictable) and because of this we are bohot uncomfortable hain. (and we are uncomfortable with the fact that) that despite our best efforts,. (in spite of of our best efforts) luck plays a very big role in our life, (luck plays a major role in our life) if our ancestors ever, heard the rustling of leaves then listen to us, (there could be 2 explanations behind it) maybe there was a lion nearby (Either there was a lion nearby) or then there was just a breath of air. (or it could have just been a gust of wind) Here, there are 2 types of mistakes. that they could have made , they acted as if there was a lion nearby) unhone aise acted kia jaise ki lion ho, (whereas there wasn't any) Run run lion come! (RUN! RUN! There's a lion!!) This type of error is also called False Positive, (This type of error is called False Positive), but they ignored it) they ignored it (assuming it was nothing). . , This type of error is false negative bhi kehte hain (To only find out that there was never one) This time we won't repeat that mistake, called False Negative) What do you think? Which of these two errors. (What do you think? Which of these two errors) would have weighed more heavily on our efforts?. (would have been costlier for them?)

This time we won't repeat that mistake, evolved to prefer Type 1) Par yahi mentality, humare, uncertain duniya mein (But in our uncertain world, this mentality). creates a lot of roadblocks for us for us) Hum waha bhi connections banate hai jaha hai hi nahi (We try to forge connections even when there are none) Kisi bhi topic par generally kya hota hain woh dekhne ki bajaye (Instead of looking at what happens generally) hum on examples dhyaan dete hain jo hume achche lagte hai. (we tend to focus on examples that we like to hear) (Bro, today I am gonna stuff myself with pizza and coke) (What's new in this? You have You know this craving everyday, right? All this is not very good for your health (You know that all this is not healthy, right?) Do you want to know more, brother?. (Don't try to lecture me) Warren Buffet who is 90 years old, still drinks coke 5-5 times (almost 5 cans of coke everyday! ) What will happen to me if nothing happens to me?, (If he's fine, I'll be okay too). There is another reason behind the strong connection, (that we form between outcomes and decisions) in our mind. There are two types of systems. (Our brain has 2 types of systems) which are fighting for our attention. , , System I controls many of our day-to-day decisions.. decisions like) Brushing. . 100 things we do without consciously thinking about it, (the 100s of things we do without consciously thinking about it) and within us our mental energy is spent. Hoti Hain, (and the one which consumes our mental energy) Means you are asked to calculate this, (Suppose you are asked to calculate this) Any It will take some time for a common man (Any ordinary person would take time to do this) Now does this mean that to make better decisions. (Does this mean that to make better decisions) simply System II will have to be used more?. (we simply need to use System 2 more?) This is not possible because System 2 is very heavy (Unfortunately, it's impossible as the part of our brain that belongs to System 2 is very small) And it is already very loaded (and it is already overloaded) System I is necessary because we have created many shortcuts, (System 1 is very important as it has created many shortcuts) Here shortcuts are the reason for our wrong decisions I am going., (These shortcuts are the reasons behind our wrong decisions) If someone tells us something we don't like, then our natural tendency is to dismiss it, (our natural tendency is to dismiss them) instead, of listening carefully and thinking about it What is Mehetva?, (In such a vast universe, what is our relevance?).. , the true challenge is to figure out how to overcome limitations?, (work within the constraints of our brain) First of all, let's have a game of chess? (But first, let's play a game of chess) Checkmate! friend! My luck is definitely bad, (Oh no! My luck is definitely bad) Brother, what is my luck? Tune jaise hi apne, (What does luck have to do with this? The moment you) ghode ko hilaya, mere aathi ne, teri queen ko maar diya (moved the knight, my rook attacked your queen) aur bas wahan se mein game lagne gaya tha, (and from there I started winning the game) In a game like Chess, luck has no role to play, (In a game like chess, luck has no role to play) Our decisions are responsible for our outcomes. (Our decisions are solely responsible for our outcomes) But there is another game where it is not like that. (. But, there's another game where this isn't the case) Brother I, have just learned poker, and you are an expert, right? Saath ?. (will you play a game with me?) haan haan chalo bhai, kyu nahin?, (sure, why not?) please show some mercy bhai. (please have some mercy on me) All in. I am also all in. (I'm all in too) Hey, where are you from?. (What kind of a pro are you?) I defeated you in one go. (I defeated you in one go) Poker is very different from chess., (Poker is quite different from chess) Here, luck plays a major role in deciding the final outcome, and (in deciding the outcome) we do not have any additional information, (and we do not have a lot of information) like what cards do our opponents have? (Like, what cards do our opponents have?) kya woh bluff kar rahe hain? (Are they bluffing?) Which cards are there in the future's chances?. (What cards might show up in the future? etc.) As you might have guessed. (As you might have guessed) life has never been like poker, not chess (life is a lot more like poker, instead of chess), , what we wanted) because maybe our luck is bad, (Maybe because we had a bad luck) or we don't have all the information, (or we didn't have all the information) A. lot of people. (who followed all the rules to protect themselves from corona) but they still got corona. (and they still got infected) Saath hi, aise kahin aur log hain jinhone ( Additionally, there are a lot of people) who openly violated every rule (who did not follow any of the precautions) but nothing happened to them. . (but nothing happened to them) Because we only.

get 1 chance to make a decision, we feel the need to be) before we act. It will definitely happen. (completely sure before acting on it) We make a lot of assumptions in our mind. head) About which we ourselves are not aware of) , “Main sure nahi hoon”, ( I am not sure) Ab humara society unko ooncha darja deta hai jo (Our society gives a higher status to ) ye, claim karte hai ke unhe sab pata hai (people who claim to know everything) naaki unko jo These say that they are trying to learn (not those who say that they are trying to learn) Also, our schools also consider “I am not sure”, (Additionally, our schools also consider “I am not sure”) A wrong answer is given (as a wrong answer) so it is not easy for us to admit it. (That's why it is difficult for us to admit) But if instead of viewing this so negatively. , (we think of it as) I guess what could happen next. hai (I have an idea about what might happen) but main nahi hoon ki exactly kya hoga, (but I'm not sure how things will exactly go) toh shayad Have. you ever wondered how the world's best, decision makers take decisions?, . , . Instead of focusing on focusing on whether they are sure) they focus on knowing that (they try to understand), how unsure they are about the different possible outcomes) ab unka guess sachchai ke kitne nazdeek hain. (How close their guess is to the real answer) woh 2 factors pe depend karta hain (depends on 2 factors) unke paas kitni nazdeek hain aur, (How much information do they have) unhe aise guesses karne ka kitna experience hain (how much experience they have in making such guesses) Now experience humare guesses ko sachchai ke, (Now experience does bring our guesses) toh lata hai par bhi bhi. (closer to the truth) woh koi guarantee nahi deta ki hum hi sahi hone wale hain (but it does not guarantee that we are going to be right). as we saw in the poker example. in the poker example) Apart from seeing the world more accurately, there is another important reason why we should make friends with uncertainty. (Along with viewing the world more accurately), befriend uncertainty) We can avoid black-and-white thinking., Come let's see an example to better understand this. Krishen, you are extremely overweight. What's the matter? What are you doing Sir? I know ki main. shape mein nahi hun (What are you saying, Sir? I might not be in a good shape) but I am not even that overweight (but I am surely not extremely overweight) would you call 100kg overweight?. (Wouldn't you consider 100 kg as overweight?) 100kg? Arey I just checked my weight yesterday, (100kg? I just checked my weight yesterday) I am 85kg. (I weigh 85kg) We only have marks in our weighing scale (Our weighing machine has only 2 marks) 50kg and 100kg. (50kg and 100 kg) What kind of machine is this? (What nonsense machine is this?) Here, like this doctor's special weighing machine (Just like this doctor's special weighing machine) we also sometimes see the world in extremes of only one right or one wrong. (we also often view the world in) In this we see. (extremities of right or wrong) in thinking about things in terms. of probabilities we find this society that Many correct decisions can also be made. due to luck or incomplete information.. . By doing this we can avoid hindsight bias. We get it because (In this way, we can avoid hindsight bias) now when something bad happens, we avoid this thought. tha ki wahi hone wala hain". (thinking that "we knew this was going to happen") , little kindness to ourselves as well) Just like our original medical scales have a lot of choices between 50kg and 100kg (Just like how in our normal weighing machines) Bhi hain, (there are a lot of choices between 50 and 100kgs) Usi tarah humare decisions mein bhi, (Similarly, there are a lot of choices) There is a lot of space between right and wrong, (between right and wrong) Second-best outcome also. bohot, achcha outcome hain (The second best outcome is also a very good outcome) If you are wondering what is explained in this video. (In case you are wondering how to remember) how can you remember every thing. (everything we told you in this video) so you can follow us on Instagram.. (You can follow us on Instagram) Where we post summaries of our videos there (which you can easily save) This video is named “Thinking in Bets” Inspired by the book.. (This video has been inspired by the book - "Thinking in Bets") If you enjoyed this video and you want us to create more such videos, (and you want us to create more such videos) toh please humein. (then please) like , share aur subscribe karke apna support dikhaiye (show your support by liking, sharing and subscribing) Aur agar iss video ne aapke life ko kisi bhi tarike se, (If anything in this video affected your life) affected kiya ho, toh aap apna experience humare saath, (in any way, please share your experience with us) please share in the comments section (in the comments section) (We' ll see you in our next video!).